泉果基金赵诣： “困境反转”开启 锂电池步入量价齐升新阶段

Core Viewpoint - The new energy sector is showing signs of stabilization and recovery after nearly four years of deep adjustment, with significant increases in relevant indices since the second half of the year [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The China Securities New Energy Index has seen a cumulative increase of 43% since the second half of the year, with the lithium battery index rising by 17.12% in September and the new energy vehicle index by 16.22%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which only increased by 2.59% [1] - The core contradictions in the new energy sector have shifted, with prices and profits at historical lows, but market clearing mechanisms and "anti-involution" policies are leading to positive changes on the supply side [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a "volume and price rise" phase, with demand remaining strong and expanding into various applications beyond just electric vehicles, supporting a compound annual growth rate of 20% to 30% [2] - The supply-demand gap is predicted to narrow starting in 2024, leading to a sustained price increase cycle as the industry transitions from over-expansion to a more balanced state [2] Group 3: Solid-State Battery Developments - Solid-state batteries, viewed as the "future battery" of the new energy industry, have achieved significant breakthroughs in technology, potentially increasing their range from 500 kilometers to over 1000 kilometers [3] - However, solid-state batteries have not yet achieved mass production and remain uncompetitive in terms of cost-effectiveness within the supply chain [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes a "two-end configuration" approach, focusing on high-end manufacturing and technology sectors while also investing in industries undergoing "turnaround" phases, such as new energy and military [5][6] - The current portfolio is balanced between growth-oriented technology companies and those in recovery phases, aiming to capture both valuation recovery and profit improvement opportunities [6]