“困境反转”开启 锂电池步入量价齐升新阶段

Core Viewpoint - The new energy sector shows signs of stabilization and recovery in the second half of the year after nearly four years of deep adjustment, with the China Securities New Energy Index rising 43% since mid-year, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index which only increased by 2.59% during the same period [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The lithium battery index rose by 17.12% in September, while the new energy vehicle index increased by 16.22%, indicating a notable rebound in market interest [1]. - The core contradictions in the new energy sector have shifted, with prices and profits at historical lows, but market clearing mechanisms and "anti-involution" policies are leading to positive changes on the supply side [2][4]. - The demand for lithium batteries remains strong, with a compound annual growth rate of 20% to 30% expected due to expanding applications in electric vessels, robotics, low-altitude economy, energy storage, sanitation vehicles, and heavy trucks [2][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The industry is expected to transition from oversupply to a supply-demand gap starting in 2024, leading to a sustained price increase cycle [2][4]. - The lithium battery industry is at a new starting point of "volume and price rising together," driven by diverse demand [4]. - Major companies in the lithium battery supply chain are already operating at full capacity, indicating a tightening supply situation in the coming year [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on high-end manufacturing and technology sectors, selecting companies with global competitiveness while optimizing the portfolio through in-depth research [6]. - The current portfolio emphasizes new energy, electronics, machinery, and military industries, balancing growth sectors like AI with industries in "turnaround" phases such as new energy and military [6]. - In AI-related investments, the focus is on efficiency-enhancing internet leaders, companies driven by new application scenarios, and computing and cloud service firms [6].