泉果基金赵诣：“困境反转”开启 锂电池步入量价齐升新阶段

Core Viewpoint - The new energy sector is showing signs of stabilization and recovery after nearly four years of deep adjustment, with significant increases in relevant indices since the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China Securities New Energy Index has seen a cumulative increase of 43% since the second half of the year, with the lithium battery index rising by 17.12% in September and the new energy vehicle index increasing by 16.22%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which only rose by 2.59% during the same period [1]. - The current market dynamics indicate a potential shift from a short-term recovery to the beginning of a new upward cycle in the new energy sector [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core contradictions in the new energy sector have shifted, with prices and profits across various segments at historically low levels, but positive changes are emerging on the supply side due to market clearing mechanisms and "anti-involution" policies [2]. - There are signs of price increases across the battery supply chain, indicating a reversal in supply and demand after nearly four years of adjustment [2]. - Demand for lithium batteries remains strong, with a compound annual growth rate of 20% to 30% supported by diverse applications beyond just electric vehicles, including electric ships, robotics, and energy storage [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The lithium battery industry is positioned at a new starting point of "volume and price increase," with expectations of a supply-demand gap narrowing from 2024, leading to a sustained price increase cycle [2]. - The solid-state battery technology has made significant advancements, with breakthroughs in key technical challenges, potentially allowing for a range of over 1000 kilometers for next-generation batteries, significantly enhancing energy density and overall performance [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and competitive positions in high-end manufacturing and technology sectors, while also optimizing the portfolio through in-depth research [5][6]. - The current portfolio is balanced between growth sectors driven by AI and industries in a "turnaround" phase, such as new energy and military industries, aiming to capture both valuation recovery and profit enhancement opportunities [6].