Core Points - The upcoming prime ministerial election in Japan is set for October 21, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the opposition Japan Innovation Party (JIP) reaching an agreement for a coalition government, indicating that LDP President Sanae Takaichi is likely to win the election [1][2] - Takaichi's ascension to prime minister is complicated by the recent withdrawal of the Komeito party from the ruling coalition, which has historically lasted 26 years, leading to increased political maneuvering among various parties [1][2] - The JIP has proposed 12 conditions for supporting Takaichi, including establishing Osaka as a "sub-capital" and reducing the number of Diet seats by approximately 10%, which the LDP has largely accepted [2][3] Political Dynamics - The election process involves a two-round voting system, where a candidate must secure a majority in the first round or face a runoff with the top two candidates [2] - The LDP currently holds 196 out of 465 seats in the House of Representatives, while the JIP has 35 seats, making it crucial for the LDP to ally with a smaller party to secure a majority [2] - Analysts suggest that the JIP's proposed policies may face significant challenges in implementation, potentially leading to future conflicts between the two parties [3] Economic Implications - The current political instability is expected to directly impact Japan's economic policies, with uncertainties surrounding the implementation of previously agreed economic cooperation with opposition parties [3] - The LDP's weakened governing foundation raises concerns about passing the supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 and related tax reform legislation without opposition support [3] - The new prime minister will also face immediate foreign policy challenges, including coordinating with the U.S. regarding President Trump's upcoming visit and participating in the APEC leaders' informal meeting [3]
（国际观察）日本首相指名选举在即 高市拜相胜算几何
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang·2025-10-19 23:54