全球经济增速温和放缓

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports a resilient start to the global economy in the first half of the year, but signs of moderate slowdown are emerging as supporting factors fade [1][2] - The report highlights significant uncertainty in the development of industries like artificial intelligence, which may struggle to drive global economic growth [1] Economic Performance - Global economic activities were strong in the first half of the year, with inflation levels in the US and Asian economies well-controlled [1] - The resilience observed was primarily due to short-term factors, such as preemptive imports and inventory management in response to US tariff policies, rather than a robust economic foundation [1] - Global economic growth is projected to decline from 3.6% at the end of 2024 to 2.6% by the end of this year, with forecasts of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 [1][2] Inflation and Trade - Inflation rates are expected to decrease, with global inflation projected at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, while US inflation is anticipated to remain above target [2] - Global trade volume is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.9% in 2025, significantly lower than the 3.5% growth rate in 2024, with ongoing trade fragmentation limiting trade revenues [2] Risks and Challenges - The report identifies persistent downward risks to the global economy, including policy uncertainty, rising protectionism, and restrictive immigration policies impacting labor supply [3] - The potential volatility in the artificial intelligence sector poses risks to economic growth and could lead to significant declines in tech stock prices, affecting market sentiment and macroeconomic stability [3] Policy Recommendations - Policymakers are urged to establish clear, transparent trade policies to reduce uncertainty and support investment, while modernizing trade rules to adapt to the digital age [4] - Fiscal sustainability and the rebuilding of fiscal buffers are prioritized, with recommendations for balanced mid-term fiscal consolidation plans [4] - Structural reforms are essential to enhance resilience and growth prospects, focusing on labor mobility, digital investment, and institutional strengthening [4]