钢材期货行情展望：板材产量过剩 关注多煤空卷操作

Price and Basis - Prices have significantly declined this week, with Shanghai rebar at 3040 yuan, Beijing rebar at 3060 yuan, and Guangzhou rebar at 2980 yuan; Shanghai rebar basis at -3 yuan; Shanghai hot rolled at 3280 yuan, Lecong hot rolled at 3230 yuan, with Shanghai hot rolled basis at 76 yuan. Rebar basis has strengthened while hot rolled basis has weakened. The cross-period price difference has weakened, with the 1-5 price difference declining [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, the operating rate and daily output of coal mines in the Steel Union sample remain low, year-on-year at a low level; raw coal and coking coal inventories are being depleted. Iron ore demand remains high with a slight inventory increase. Recent steel profits have significantly declined from high levels, with iron element costs decreasing and carbon element costs supported. Current profits from high to low are: steel billet > hot rolled > rebar > cold rolled [1] Supply - From January to September, iron element output increased by 5% year-on-year. Due to last year's high base in Q4, the annual growth rate is expected to narrow. There are signs of reduced iron water production, down by 0.5 million tons to 2.4 million tons. This year's incremental iron water is more directed towards steel billets and non-major materials, with major materials' output year-on-year remaining flat and incremental output being small. Since October, the output of major materials has remained low, with current output at 8.57 million tons, down by 64,000 tons month-on-month. Among them, rebar output is 2.01 million tons, down by 23,000 tons month-on-month, with the average rebar output over the past four weeks at 2.04 million tons, below the demand of around 2.2 million tons. Hot rolled output is 3.22 million tons, down by 14,000 tons month-on-month, slightly above the demand (3.156 million tons) [1] Demand - In terms of demand structure, domestic demand expectations remain weak; however, there is an expectation of policy support in Q4 (on the 18th, the Ministry of Finance announced the early issuance of the 2026 new local government debt limit). Exports remain high, and the recent price decline supports steel mill exports. Post-National Day, demand has recovered to 8.75 million tons, with non-major materials' demand remaining flat compared to September. Year-on-year, due to last year's high basis, achieving year-on-year growth in demand for major materials in Q4 is challenging. Current demand for major materials has increased by 1.39 million tons to 8.75 million tons, with rebar demand up by 730,000 tons to 2.2 million tons; hot rolled demand up by 246,000 tons to 3.155 million tons [2] Inventory - Major materials inventory decreased by 180,000 tons to 15.82 million tons; among them, rebar inventory decreased by 186,000 tons to 6.41 million tons; hot rolled inventory increased by 60,000 tons to 4.19 million tons. Considering that demand has recovered to 8.75 million tons, current output is below demand, and it is expected that the inventory center will maintain a year-on-year increase but show a month-on-month decline trend [2] Outlook - Post-holiday demand has recovered, but previous accumulation of plate materials necessitates production cuts by steel mills to alleviate inventory. The price decline has already priced in most supply surplus expectations; on the cost side, carbon element costs are supported, while iron ore may see some inventory accumulation due to declining iron water expectations, leading to a decrease in iron element costs. Steel prices have declined significantly, compressing steel mill profits. The January contracts for rebar and hot rolled are expected to stabilize around 3000 and 3200 yuan, respectively, transitioning to a range-bound consolidation trend. A wait-and-see approach is suggested for single positions. Considering coal mine production cuts and strong thermal coal, a strategy of long carbon and short iron arbitrage can be considered, with targets including long coking coal and short hot rolled operations. Given that hot rolled output remains high, the spread between hot rolled and rebar is expected to continue to converge. Until steel production and inventory clear, steel mill profits will continue to compress [3]