申万宏源:维持特步国际(01368)“买入”评级 DTC转型稳步推进
智通财经网·2025-10-20 02:32

Core Viewpoint - Xtep International is optimizing its multi-brand matrix by divesting its fashion sports brand in 2024, focusing on its core running business, and enhancing resource allocation. The company plans to initiate a DTC transformation in 2025, which is expected to solidify its position in the professional sports sector and maintain a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Xtep's main brand achieved a low single-digit year-on-year growth in total channel revenue, consistent with Q2's performance, with online sales showing double-digit growth and children's products outperforming adult categories [2] - The net profit forecasts for Xtep are projected at 1.37 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [1] Group 2: Brand and Product Development - Saucony brand experienced over 20% year-on-year growth in total channel revenue in Q3, with offline revenue increasing by over 30%. The brand opened 16 new stores, primarily in first and second-tier city core business districts, maintaining an annual store opening target of 30-50 [3] - Saucony is focusing on the running scene and expanding its apparel and OG series, receiving positive market feedback, and is confident in achieving over 30% growth for the year [3] Group 3: Inventory and Discount Management - Xtep's main brand maintained a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4-4.5 months and discount levels between 70-75%, indicating effective supply chain management and terminal sales efficiency [4] - Saucony's inventory and discount levels are also within controllable ranges, allowing flexibility for promotions in Q4 [4] Group 4: Channel Innovation and Expansion - Xtep is continuously optimizing its channel structure, with over 70% of its stores upgraded to the new 9th generation and leading stores. The company is accelerating its presence in shopping centers and outlet stores [5] - The outlet channel, represented by leading and selected outlets, is expected to expand to 70-100 stores by 2026, aligning with positive market trends in outlet traffic and sales [5] Group 5: DTC Transformation - Xtep plans to reclaim approximately 100 stores in Q4, with a total of 400 stores by the end of 2025, involving a capital expenditure of around 400 million yuan. This move is expected to enhance the company's long-term channel competitiveness [6]