稳经济政策举措接续发力，前三季度中国GDP同比增长5.2%

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of the year reached 5.2% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively. The economy is showing a steady recovery, but faces significant risks and challenges ahead [1][2]. Economic Performance - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the macroeconomic indicators remain stable, and high-quality development has achieved positive results. However, the economy still requires stronger foundations for recovery [1]. - Forecasts for the fourth quarter suggest increased downward pressure on the economy due to high base effects, tariff uncertainties, and the waning impact of previous policies. Achieving the annual growth target of around 5% will require focused policy efforts to stabilize investment and boost consumption [1][2]. Policy Outlook - Analysts predict that the fourth quarter will see a complex economic situation, with potential declines in export growth and insufficient internal consumption and investment momentum. The previous year's policy measures have raised the base significantly, leading to downward pressure on GDP growth [2][4]. - A new round of growth-stabilizing policies, including a 500 billion yuan financial tool, is expected to be introduced, focusing on fiscal support, monetary easing, and stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market [2][4]. GDP Growth Projections - GDP growth for the fourth quarter is estimated to be around 4.7%, with an overall trend of "high at the beginning and low at the end" for the year. The third quarter is typically a low point due to the timing of policy effects [4]. - The China Banking Research Institute projects fourth quarter GDP growth at approximately 4.5%, with an annual growth forecast of around 5% [4]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The report emphasizes the need for fiscal policies to play a supportive role, with timely introduction of effective incremental policies to ensure the achievement of annual growth targets. Monetary policy should remain flexible and responsive to domestic and international economic conditions [5].