智通财经网·2025-10-20 03:17Group 1: Market Outlook and Trade Agreement - Jefferies believes the market is underestimating the likelihood of a US-China trade agreement by the end of October, which could temporarily ease tensions and extend the rally in risk assets for the remainder of the year [1] - The "ultimate agreement" scenario proposed by Jefferies involves the US lifting semiconductor export controls and China removing rare earth restrictions, based on a logic of mutual concessions [2] - A poll indicates that 60% of Americans oppose the tariff agenda, reflecting pressure on farmers and consumers [3] Group 2: AI and Market Dynamics - AI infrastructure spending continues to be a core driver of the US stock market's rise, with expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve exacerbating this trend [4] - The collaboration between OpenAI and Broadcom to develop custom AI chips signals an upgrade in capital intensity, suggesting that the market has not yet peaked despite discussions of an "AI bubble" [4] Group 3: Gold and Currency Valuation - Gold prices have surpassed $4,200 per ounce, with a long-term target of $6,600, as the dollar has depreciated by 99% in real terms since 1971 [5] - The structural bearish outlook on the dollar is supported by increasing fiscal pressures, with interest expenditures projected to grow by 6.9% annually, outpacing nominal GDP growth of 3.8% [5] Group 4: Australia’s Economic Recovery - Australia's inflation slowdown, declining interest rates, and housing market rebound suggest the end of recession, with disposable income rising by 2.4% from last year's low [6] - However, productivity continues to deteriorate, and corporate earnings have been weak, with the MSCI Australia index EPS growth averaging only 2.8% since 2017 [6] Group 5: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Jefferies recommends that fund managers increase their positions in Taiwanese tech stocks (such as TSMC and MediaTek) and major Chinese companies (like Alibaba, Tencent, and BYD), while reducing exposure to Indian stocks [7] - The report emphasizes that the unprecedented AI wave, while led by the US, suggests a strategic shift towards Asian hardware and internet leaders rather than chasing US AI hype [7]