标普因预算风险突发下调法国评级至A+，债券期货应声走低

Group 1 - France's sovereign credit rating was downgraded by S&P Global from AA- to A+, highlighting the country's fiscal challenges and increasing the risk of forced selling of French bonds by some funds [1] - The downgrade follows a previous downgrade by Fitch, resulting in France losing two out of three major rating agencies' AA ratings within a month, with Moody's set to announce its assessment soon [1] - The report from S&P indicates high uncertainty regarding public finances ahead of the 2027 presidential election, exacerbated by severe political instability since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958 [1] Group 2 - The downgrade may reduce the attractiveness of French bonds to risk-averse asset owners, such as central bank reserve management departments and certain pension funds, which typically target assets rated AA or above [4] - Despite remaining in the investment-grade category, the downgrade could lead to forced sales during fund rebalancing, and investor sentiment has already been negatively impacted, with French borrowing costs exceeding those of lower-rated countries like Greece and Portugal [4] - The focus is now shifting to the French budget negotiations, with the Prime Minister having abandoned the use of constitutional provisions to bypass parliamentary votes, complicating the path to agreement on the 2026 budget [4]