Core Insights - The recent focus on cement companies expanding overseas is driven by weak domestic demand and a relatively slow improvement in supply-demand dynamics, making international markets a key growth avenue for leading firms [1] Group 1: African Market Potential - The cement demand in sub-Saharan Africa is significantly lower than the global average, with a per capita consumption of 130 kg in 2023 compared to the global average of 541 kg, indicating substantial growth potential [1] - The market structure in regions like Nigeria, Tanzania, and Malawi is relatively stable, with high concentration among major players such as Dangote and BUA, leading to stable short-term pricing [1] - The revenue growth rates for Dangote, BUA, and Lafarge in Nigeria are projected to be 32%, 43%, and 32% respectively from 2020 to 2024, with EBITDA margins for Dangote and BUA exceeding 50% and 30% [1] Group 2: Central Asia Market Dynamics - In Central Asia, per capita cement consumption is projected to be between 0.4 to 0.5 tons in 2024, slightly below the global average of 0.55 tons, with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan experiencing strong supply-demand conditions [2] - Some regions in Central Asia are facing overcapacity, leading to a focus on exporting to neighboring countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan [2] - Capital expenditures by domestic companies in Central Asia are expected to decrease starting in 2025 [2] Group 3: Expansion Strategies - The overseas expansion strategy for domestic cement companies has shifted from primarily new construction to a combination of new builds and acquisitions since 2020, allowing for reduced local supply burdens [3] - Following a slowdown in domestic demand after 2012, leading firms began large-scale production line constructions in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, establishing early international footprints [3] - Companies like Dangote and Holcim are adjusting their strategies in response to ESG pressures, providing opportunities for Chinese firms in Africa and the Middle East [3]
中金：国内水泥龙头谋求第二增长曲线 海外核心市场需求增长潜力大
智通财经网·2025-10-20 03:44