关键投票前成功“策反”在野党，高市早苗当日本首相又“稳”了？
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-10-20 04:26

Core Viewpoint - The political landscape in Japan is shifting dramatically with the potential election of Sanna Takichi as Prime Minister, following a prolonged preparation period and significant changes in party alliances [1][2]. Group 1: Election Process and Political Dynamics - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), have agreed to hold a Prime Minister nomination election on the 21st [2]. - Takichi won the LDP presidency on the 4th, but must still be confirmed through the Prime Minister nomination election, which was initially scheduled for the 15th but delayed due to the Komeito party's exit from the ruling coalition [2]. - The election requires a majority in the National Diet, with 233 votes needed to win outright in the first round [2]. Group 2: Coalition Changes and Implications - The LDP holds 196 seats, Komeito has 24, while the CDP has 148, and the Japan Innovation Party has 35 [4]. - The exit of Komeito from the coalition significantly complicates Takichi's path to becoming Prime Minister, as the LDP now needs an additional 48 votes to reach a majority [4]. - Komeito's demands for political donations and historical issues have not been met by the LDP, leading to a breakdown in the coalition [5]. Group 3: Opposition Movements and Alliances - The CDP has proposed the leader of the National Democratic Party, Tamaki Yuichiro, as a unified candidate from the opposition, indicating a potential shift in power dynamics [5]. - The National Democratic Party and the CDP have fundamental disagreements, which may hinder a unified opposition front [7]. - Reports suggest that the LDP is negotiating with the Japan Innovation Party, which could lead to a new coalition that brings them closer to a majority [7][8]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the news of a potential coalition between the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party, the Nikkei 225 index surged by 3%, reaching a historic high of over 49,000 points [6].