关键投票前成功“策反”在野党 高市早苗当日本首相又“稳”了？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming prime ministerial election in Japan is marked by significant political shifts, particularly the potential collapse of the long-standing ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, which could alter the political landscape and impact the election outcome [2][3][4]. Group 1: Election Dynamics - The prime ministerial election is scheduled for the 21st, following the recent victory of former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi as the LDP president [2]. - The initial election date was postponed due to Komeito's withdrawal from the ruling coalition, creating uncertainty around the election process [2][3]. - The election rules stipulate that a candidate must secure a majority of votes (233 seats) in the first round to win outright; otherwise, the top two candidates will proceed to a second round [2]. Group 2: Political Alliances and Challenges - The LDP currently holds 196 seats, while Komeito has 24 seats, and the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), has 148 seats [3]. - The dissolution of the LDP-Komeito coalition means that the LDP now requires at least 48 additional votes to achieve a majority, complicating Takaichi's path to becoming prime minister [3][4]. - The CDP has proposed a unified candidate from the National Democratic Party, indicating a potential alliance among opposition parties to challenge the LDP [4]. Group 3: Shifts in Political Support - Reports indicate that the LDP is seeking to form an alliance with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) to bolster its position, which could significantly impact the election outcome [5]. - The JIP has set forth 12 conditions for cooperation, including social security reforms and legislative proposals for establishing a "sub-capital" [6]. - The political landscape remains fluid, with potential for both collaboration and conflict among opposition parties, which could influence voter sentiment and election results [5][7].