三大人民币汇率指数下行，CFETS指数按周跌0.24

Core Points - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all declined in the week of October 17, with the CFETS index at 97.08, down 0.24% week-on-week, the BIS index at 103.07, down 0.36%, and the SDR index at 91.49, down 0.40% [1][2] Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index weakened overall last week, closing at 98.55, down 0.27% for the week. This weakness supported non-USD currencies, with the euro, pound, and yen all appreciating against the dollar [5] - The RMB against the USD middle rate was reported at 7.0949, with a weekly increase of 186 basis points. The onshore RMB closed at 7.1277, up 83 basis points, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1269, down 37 basis points [5] - Year-to-date, the RMB middle rate has appreciated over 900 points, with the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating 2.40% and over 2.8% respectively [5] Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - Analysts attribute the recent RMB appreciation to both internal and external factors. External factors include the impact of the US government shutdown on economic data, increasing uncertainty in financial markets, and accelerated capital flow from the US to non-USD countries [6] - Internal factors include the release of consumer potential, industrial structure upgrades, and continuous optimization of market competition, which provide fundamental support for the RMB exchange rate [6] - The core driver of RMB appreciation is the easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which influences the RMB through direct effects on the dollar's exchange rate and interest rates [6] Economic Indicators - In September, the consumer market remained stable, with the CPI rising 0.1% month-on-month and falling 0.3% year-on-year. The core CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion [8] - China's foreign trade continued to show a steady upward trend, with total goods trade value reaching 33.61 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 4% [8] - The broad money supply (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan at the end of September, growing 8.4% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [9]