“金九”楼市下行压力趋缓 未来走势需关注三个变量

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in housing prices across 70 major cities in September, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, suggesting a stabilization in the real estate market [1][2]. New Housing Market - In September, first-tier cities saw new housing prices decrease by 0.3% month-on-month, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slight increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.6% and 1.0% [1]. - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.4%, while third-tier cities also saw a 0.4% decrease, indicating a consistent downward trend [1]. - The new housing market is characterized by significant differentiation among cities, with first-tier cities showing stronger performance [2]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities saw a month-on-month price decline of 1.0%, with specific decreases in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1]. - The average listing duration for second-hand homes increased to 95 days, with third and fourth-tier cities reaching 99 days, indicating a greater difficulty in sales compared to core cities [2]. - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is attributed to a "price for volume" strategy, as many listings have not adjusted their prices in line with market conditions [2]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to Q4, the expectation is that policy easing will continue to support transaction volumes in core cities, with stable price expectations further reinforcing market confidence [3]. - The core cities are anticipated to see a rebound in transaction volumes, driven by policy incentives and seasonal demand [3]. - However, the second-hand market may still face price pressures, with high listing volumes indicating ongoing challenges [3]. Key Market Indicators - Key indicators for market stabilization include land market performance, inventory de-stocking cycles, and adjustments in second-hand listing prices [3][4]. - The land premium rates in core city areas are seen as a significant indicator of developer confidence, while high land auction failure rates may signal ongoing market adjustments [3]. - The overall de-stocking cycle for first and second-tier cities has decreased to under 12 months, suggesting an acceleration in inventory reduction [3].