58安居客研究院院长张波：“金九”楼市保持稳定

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities showed a mixed performance in September, with new residential prices declining month-on-month but the year-on-year decline narrowing, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - In September, new residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slight increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.6% and 1.0% [1] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.4% in new residential prices, while third-tier cities also saw a similar decline of 0.4% [1] - The second-hand residential market in first-tier cities saw a month-on-month price drop of 1.0%, consistent with the previous month, with declines in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "Golden September" period showed relative stability in the real estate market, with steady transaction volumes in the second-hand market and ongoing structural differentiation in new housing [1][2] - Policy relaxations in August and September, such as the easing of purchase restrictions in Shenzhen and adjustments in mortgage rates in Shanghai, have stimulated demand and supported both new and second-hand housing prices [2] - The online search for second-hand homes reached a peak of 64.1% in September, indicating increased interest, while the average listing duration for second-hand homes rose to 95 days, suggesting challenges in inventory turnover, particularly in smaller cities [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, continued policy easing is expected to support transaction volumes in core cities, with stable price expectations likely to strengthen market confidence [3] - The release of policy benefits and traditional seasonal effects are anticipated to drive a rebound in transaction volumes in core cities, particularly in areas where purchase restrictions have been relaxed [3]