LPR连续5个月“按兵不动”，降息窗口仍需等待

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for October, reflecting stable policy rates and ongoing pressure on bank interest margins, indicating limited room for LPR reduction in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR for both 1-year and 5-year terms remains at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, unchanged for five consecutive months, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. - The stability of the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40% since May limits the basis for LPR reduction, as it has not changed [2]. - Bank interest margin pressures are increasing due to ongoing efforts to reduce costs for the real economy, with the net interest margin of commercial banks dropping to 1.42% by Q2 2025, down 10 basis points from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The need for stable growth has increased due to external pressures, such as high tariffs from the U.S. affecting global trade and domestic investment and consumption slowing down [4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support consumption and effective investment [4]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - Experts suggest that there is potential for targeted LPR reductions before the end of the year to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [5][6]. - The PBOC may utilize various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and MLF operations, to enhance liquidity and support key sectors [6]. - External factors, such as the potential for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, may provide a conducive environment for domestic monetary easing [6][7].