天亮了吗？——通信ETF大涨点评

Market Performance - On October 20, the market experienced high-level fluctuations in the early session, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 16.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.49%. Notably, overseas computing power was strong, with the ChiNext AI ETF rising by 4.14% and the communication ETF increasing by 3.97% [1]. Factors Driving the Upsurge - Nvidia's Rubin shipment expectations for 2026 have been raised, and the competitive landscape in the optical module market remains stable. If the market expands, it is theoretically expected that the performance of related manufacturers will also improve [2]. - The upcoming release of Google's Gemini 3 series has generated buzz, with leaked demo tests indicating its strong capabilities. Gemini 3 addresses AI display issues with precision down to the second hand, outperforming GPT-5 in certain aspects. The number of tokens processed by Google has seen a significant increase, surpassing 1.3 trillion monthly, up from 980 trillion in July and 480 trillion in May, indicating a steep growth trajectory [2]. Market Outlook - The AI wave is expected to continue, with a focus on computing power as the main line. The acceleration of industrialization is evident, with overseas infrastructure investments resonating with performance and mature business models leading to a noticeable speed-up in AI. Domestically, the production of domestic GPUs is accelerating, and domestic computing power remains strong. Recent tariff expectations have led to a pullback in computing power, presenting potential low-position investment opportunities [4]. - There is a caution regarding short-term pullback risks. Geopolitical tensions and tariff risks are expected to have a relatively larger impact on consumer electronics and communications sectors, while the semiconductor sector is less affected. Multiple disruptive events may increase market volatility, and significant developments may remain uncertain ahead of APEC [5]. Investment Considerations - Following previous pullbacks, better investment opportunities may arise. Investors are encouraged to consider both domestic and overseas computing power investments, with a focus on communication ETFs (515880) and semiconductor equipment ETFs (159516) [5].