Ford Motor(US:F) Xi Niu Cai Jing·2025-10-20 06:14Core Insights - A significant fire at Novelis' Oswego plant in New York has completely destroyed key production areas, leading to a production halt expected until early next year [2] - The fire has resulted in Ford Motor Company having to temporarily reduce production of at least five vehicle models, including several popular SUVs, due to aluminum supply challenges [2] - Novelis supplies approximately 40% of the aluminum sheet raw materials for the U.S. automotive industry, making the supply disruption particularly impactful for Ford [2] Impact on Ford - The F-150 pickup truck, which uses the most aluminum in the industry, is expected to be the hardest hit by the aluminum supply interruption [2] - Ford has also paused production of the profitable large SUVs, Expedition and Lincoln Navigator, due to aluminum supply difficulties, with a production halt lasting one week [2] - A memo from Ford indicated that production at another assembly plant in Kentucky was also suspended to conserve aluminum supplies, with only one shift resuming this week [2] Financial Implications - Analysts estimate that if the F-series pickup production is halted, Ford could face a loss of up to $1 billion in operating profit [3] - A 20% decline in F-series sales in the fourth quarter could lead to an $800 million reduction in Ford's operating profit [3] - Evercore ISI estimates that out of the planned 130,000 F-series vehicles to be assembled in the last two months of the year, 20,000 to 50,000 may be affected and forced to cancel production [3] Mitigation Efforts - Ford is working closely with Novelis to explore all possible alternatives to minimize potential production stoppages [3] - Novelis is investigating the possibility of sourcing automotive-grade aluminum from its overseas plants and competitors to meet Ford's standards [3]