日本央行本月底加息悬念犹存

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing high volatility, with uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting, influenced by both domestic political changes and persistent inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, has expressed a cautious stance regarding interest rate hikes, leading to market uncertainty about a potential increase at the end of October [1]. - Japan's inflation rate has consistently exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for three consecutive years since 2023, prompting increasing internal pressure for a return to interest rate hikes [1]. - In the September policy meeting, two out of nine committee members proposed interest rate hikes, indicating a growing internal consensus on the need for action despite the lack of full inflation pressure visibility [1]. Group 2: Currency Impact and Economic Risks - If the Bank of Japan continues to delay interest rate hikes, the yen may weaken further, increasing import prices and exacerbating the cost of living for Japanese citizens [2]. - The persistent weakness of the yen poses a long-term challenge for the Japanese economy, particularly amid global fluctuations in energy and commodity prices [2]. - Analysts warn that failure to act on interest rates could threaten the stability of the Japanese economy due to potential further depreciation of the yen [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of USD/JPY - The USD/JPY exchange rate has encountered significant resistance around 152.00, resulting in a high-level consolidation pattern, with support concentrated in the 150.50–150.00 range [3]. - A breakdown below the support level could lead to a decline towards the 149.40–149.35 range, indicating potential short-term adjustment pressures [3]. - Technical indicators suggest weakening bullish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) declining from high levels and the MACD histogram showing reduced volume, signaling short-term adjustment challenges [3].