上海楼市“一枝独秀”，高端住宅热潮推高新房价格

Core Insights - Shanghai's real estate market shows resilience amid overall market adjustments, with new residential sales prices rising by 5.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month in September 2025, leading the performance among 70 major cities in China [1] - In contrast, the national real estate market is experiencing a "stable volume and declining price" trend, with a general decrease in sales prices across various city tiers, although the year-on-year decline is narrowing, indicating a potential easing of market pressures [1] - The strong performance of Shanghai's new housing market is attributed to the high-end residential sector, with six out of the top ten new housing projects in September exceeding an average price of 100,000 yuan per square meter, and the top project exceeding 200,000 yuan per square meter [1] Secondary Market Dynamics - The secondary housing market in Shanghai is undergoing a "price-for-volume" adjustment, with prices dropping by 1% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year in September, indicating a significant reduction in price bubbles and laying a solid foundation for market stability [3] - Both buyers and sellers in the secondary market are cautious, with sellers fearing losses and buyers concerned about overpaying, leading to a search for a new equilibrium [3] - Nationally, the secondary housing market reflects similar trends, with increased online property searches but longer listing durations, suggesting that volume increases are being achieved at the cost of price concessions, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities [3] Future Outlook - Industry experts anticipate that policy easing will continue to support transaction volumes in core cities, reinforcing confidence in stable price expectations [3] - For non-core areas in first and second-tier cities, as well as many small and medium-sized cities, the "price-for-volume" strategy will likely dominate in the near term to address inventory issues [3] - The sustainability of Shanghai's "independent market trend" will depend on the continued heat in its high-end market and the evolution of the overall economic environment [3]