高波动率下金银或迎来调整，耐心等待买入时机

Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to show strength, with COMEX gold rising by 5.76% and COMEX silver by 6.55% this week [1][2] - The main trading theme this week is recession, with the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping below 4%, primarily due to renewed tariff expectations from Trump [1][2] - Short-term volatility for Shanghai gold and silver is high, with Shanghai gold volatility reaching 30% and silver exceeding 40%, suggesting a potential adjustment [1][2] - Long-term outlook remains positive for precious metals due to ongoing de-dollarization and inflows into ETFs amid short-term rate cut expectations [2] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices rebounded this week, with LME copper increasing by 2.25% due to tariff expectations leading to overselling [2] - Despite a recent price increase, downstream demand has shown some pressure, with a decline in operating rates for copper rods [2] - Supply disruptions from Freeport and Teck Resources are expected to create a tight supply-demand situation for copper by 2026, suggesting a buy on dips strategy [2] Group 3: Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices fell by 0.33% this week, facing pressure from tariff impacts similar to copper [3] - As the traditional peak season progresses, aluminum water ratios are expected to rise, although cost support continues to weaken [3] - Domestic aluminum processing enterprises recorded an average operating rate of 62.5%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] Group 4: Cobalt - Cobalt prices surged this week, with significant weekly increases in various cobalt compounds, driven by supply concerns following Congo's export quota announcement [4] - The anticipated supply tightness is expected to persist, with a widening supply-demand gap projected for 2026-2027, indicating substantial price upside potential [4] Group 5: Rare Earths - Rare earth prices declined this week due to increased production of certain oxides, despite a reduction in raw material output [4] - Future supply constraints are expected due to tightened export controls, which may support rare earth prices [4] - Continued development in energy-efficient appliances, electric vehicles, and humanoid robots is expected to create upward price momentum [4] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [5]