中国航运延续增势支撑外贸，未来如何穿越“风浪”
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-10-20 08:23

Current "Weather" - The international shipping industry is currently described as facing "stormy weather" with low visibility, influenced by global economic conditions, energy transition, new ship orders, and trade friction [4][5] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth rates of 3.2% for this year and 3.1% for next year, indicating that global trade continues to grow despite challenges [4] - The new ship order volume is a critical indicator of the shipping sector's outlook, with potential pressure on container shipping expected in the coming years, possibly leading to losses by 2026 [4][5] China's "Path" - China's shipping industry has achieved significant results in supporting economic and social development, with water and land freight volume reaching 9.81 billion tons and container throughput at 33 million TEUs in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth [8] - The focus on green and intelligent development is evident, with an expanding fleet of new energy vessels and the application of AI technologies [8][9] - The China Ocean Shipping Group has proposed six strategic paths for enhancing shipping productivity, including strengthening supply chain collaboration and promoting green energy integration [9] Future "Direction" - The global shipping industry is expected to remain a core pillar of the economy, with China accounting for approximately 31% of global shipping volume [12] - Despite a projected slowdown in global trade growth, signs of recovery are emerging, particularly in the tanker market, with significant increases in charter rates since summer [12][13] - China is anticipated to deliver 52% of the world's new ships this year, highlighting its critical role in the global shipping market [12] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Structural challenges such as trade conflicts, technological barriers, and local protectionism are reshaping the industry landscape, necessitating a shift from cost-based competition to a focus on technology and supply chain security [10] - The energy transition presents both risks and opportunities, with potential for growth in alternative fuel applications and ship technology upgrades [13][14] - The shipping industry is encouraged to enhance cooperation, maintain an open shipping order, and strengthen technological empowerment for a green and intelligent transition [15][16]