Instant view: China Q3 GDP growth slows to 4.8% y/y, in line with forecast

Core Viewpoint - China's economic growth in the third quarter slowed to 4.8%, the weakest pace in a year, due to a prolonged property slump and trade tensions, prompting calls for more stimulus to support economic momentum [1]. Economic Data Summary - Q3 GDP growth was 4.8% year-on-year, matching forecasts and down from 5.2% in Q2 [5] - Q3 GDP growth was 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, exceeding the forecast of 0.8% and slightly up from a revised 1.0% in Q2 [5] - September industrial output increased by 6.5% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 5.0% and up from 5.2% in August [5] - September retail sales rose by 3.0% year-on-year, in line with forecasts but down from 3.4% in August [5] - Fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, below the forecast of a 0.1% increase, and down from a 0.5% increase from January to August [5] - Property investment from January to September fell by 13.9% year-on-year, worsening from a 12.9% decline from January to August [5] Analyst Commentary Summary - Analysts suggest that while the GDP number is decent, domestic activity remains weak, indicating a need for further measures to boost demand [2][3] - There is an expectation that Beijing will meet its 2025 growth target of around 5%, with little need for broad fiscal stimulus at this time [2] - Targeted additional fiscal stimulus is anticipated, with the Q3 GDP number possibly being the low point in the current cycle [4]