China’s Lopsided Growth Puts Spotlight on Xi’s Five-Year Plan

Economic Growth - China's GDP expanded by 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, slightly surpassing economists' forecasts, indicating a solid foundation for achieving the full-year growth target of around 5% [2][5] - The growth rate of 5.2% for the first three quarters may lessen the urgency for further stimulus measures in the near term [5][6] Industrial and Retail Performance - Industrial output saw an unexpected increase of 6.5% in September, exceeding all economists' estimates, which contrasts with the overall slowing growth trend [6][7] - Retail sales grew at the slowest pace since November, highlighting a divergence in economic performance [6][7] Policy Implications - Policymakers are likely to focus on addressing structural issues between supply and demand, especially during the deliberations of the 15th Five-Year Plan at the Fourth Plenary Session [6][7] - The recent economic data may lead to a delay in the anticipated 10-basis-point rate cut by the central bank [5][6]