China Q3 GDP growth slows to 4.8% y/y, in line with forecast

Core Insights - China's economic growth in Q3 2023 slowed to 4.8%, matching expectations and down from 5.2% in Q2, indicating ongoing challenges from a property slump and trade tensions [1][5] Economic Performance - Q3 GDP growth was 4.8% year-on-year, aligning with forecasts and down from 5.2% in Q2 [5] - Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 1.1%, surpassing the forecast of 0.8% and slightly up from a revised 1.0% in Q2 [5] - Industrial output in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 5.0% [5] - Retail sales in September grew by 3.0% year-on-year, matching forecasts but down from 3.4% in August [5] - Fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, contrary to the forecast of a 0.1% increase [5] - Property investment from January to September fell by 13.9% year-on-year, worsening from a 12.9% decline in January-August [5] Market Reactions and Expectations - Analysts suggest that while the GDP number is decent, domestic activity and investment remain weak, indicating a need for further demand stimulation [2][4] - There is an expectation that Beijing will meet its 2025 growth target of around 5%, with little need for broad fiscal stimulus at this time [2] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to maintain a stable USD/CNY exchange rate as the People's Bank of China aims to minimize volatility [2]