摩根资产管理三季度经济数据快评：国内经济展现韧性，刺激政策加码概率上升

Core Insights - China's GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8%, slightly below Q2's 5.2%, indicating a slowdown in domestic demand and investment [1][3] - Despite a significant drop in exports to the US, overall exports remained strong, particularly to ASEAN and Europe, suggesting resilience in external demand [1][4][5] - The likelihood of new stimulus measures is increasing due to weakening domestic demand and pressures on employment and consumption [6][8] Economic Indicators - Q3 2025 GDP growth: 4.8% (Q2: 5.2%) [1] - Industrial production growth in September 2025: 6.5% [1] - Fixed asset investment from January to September 2025: -0.5% [1] - Retail sales growth in September 2025: 3.0% [1] - Export growth in September 2025: 8.3% [1] - Import growth in September 2025: 7.4% [1] - CPI in September 2025: -0.3% [1] - PPI in September 2025: -2.3% [1] Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic consumption showed signs of weakness, with retail sales growth declining from 6.4% in June to 3.0% in September [3][4] - Fixed asset investment continued to slow, with real estate development investment down 13.9% year-on-year [3] - The "anti-involution" policy has put pressure on manufacturing investment, which was previously supported by export growth and consumption recovery [3][6] Export Performance - Exports to the US fell by 27.0% in September, but exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN grew by 14.2%, 1.8%, and 15.6% respectively [4][5] - The shift in supply chains towards ASEAN reflects ongoing changes in trade dynamics [4][5] Policy Outlook - The urgency for new policy stimulus is rising as Q3 data indicates challenges in achieving the 5% growth target for the year [6] - Potential measures include interest rate cuts and increased liquidity to support domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [6][8] - Upcoming meetings, including the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the Central Economic Work Conference, are expected to provide further guidance on policy direction [8] Market Sentiment - The stock market has shown resilience, supported by liquidity measures and governance reforms aimed at attracting long-term investment [7] - High-growth sectors such as semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and new energy have performed well, although the market is currently in a consolidation phase [7] - Anticipation of corporate earnings reports and policy guidance is influencing investor sentiment [7][8]