【固收】超长期特别国债发行完毕――利率债周报

Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery in export growth driven by low base effects, with significant increases in exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America, while exports to the US still face double-digit declines [4] - Inflation data shows that CPI is supported by seasonal increases in certain food prices and rising industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy, while PPI is mainly affected by input factors, with notable price improvements in key industries [4] - The financial data indicates weak credit performance, but an increase in M1 year-on-year growth suggests improved liquidity for enterprises due to accelerated fiscal spending [5] Group 1: Important Events - Export growth has rebounded due to low base effects, with exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America showing significant year-on-year increases, while exports to the US continue to decline by double digits [4] - CPI is supported by seasonal food price increases and rising prices in industrial consumer goods, while PPI is primarily dragged down by input factors, with key industries like coal, black metals, and photovoltaics showing price improvements [4] Group 2: Financial Data - Credit data remains weak, but M1 year-on-year growth has increased, indicating a rise in enterprise liquidity driven by faster fiscal spending [5] Group 3: Market Conditions - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal exceeded 300 billion, leading to a slight decline in DR007 to just above 1.4%, while interbank certificate of deposit yields have risen due to increased pressure on bank liabilities [6] - A total of 48 bonds were issued during the period, with a total issuance amount of 625.2 billion, and the issuance of special long-term government bonds has completed the annual plan [7] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield showing volatility influenced by US-China trade relations [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - The bond market's sensitivity to fundamentals is currently low, with weak fundamentals indicating lower returns for the real economy, and bonds are unlikely to provide higher overall returns in a low coupon and capital loss environment [9] - Incremental policies are expected to focus on stabilizing growth, promoting consumption, and expanding infrastructure, with potential adjustments in fund redemption fees and the central bank restarting bond purchases [9] - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session may have a neutral to bearish impact on the bond market, with the potential for a steepening yield curve if trade relations improve [10]