Biotech ETFs Bounce Back in 2025: Here's Why

Market Performance - iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) has rallied 30.2% over the past six months, outperforming SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) which increased by 26.5% [1] - Year-to-date, IBB has risen 15.4% compared to SPY's 13.7% gain [1] - MSCI USA Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology and Life Sciences Index has shown muted returns of 3.74% in 2024 and 0.97% in 2023, significantly lower than the 25.1% and 27.1% returns of the MSCI USA index in the same years [1] Industry Returns - The Biomedical and Genetics industry has returned 9.35% over the past three months and 4.64% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 which gained 6.33% in the last three months and 1.02% in the last month [2] Valuation Metrics - Biotech stocks are trading below the broader market, with MSCI USA Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology and Life Sciences Index at a forward P/E of 15.92X compared to 23.25X for the MSCI USA index [4] - The Biomedical and Genetics industry has a forward P/E of 19.66X versus the S&P 500's 20.13X, with a PEG ratio of 1.85X compared to 2.31X for the S&P 500 [5] Growth Projections - Projected EPS growth for Biomedical and Genetics stocks is 19.12%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's projected EPS growth of 6.88% [5] Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's first rate cut of 2025 in September is seen as beneficial for biotech companies, which typically require cheaper funding [6] - Although rates may not return to the extremely low levels of 2020, the current decline is viewed positively for the high-growth biotech sector [6] Regulatory Environment - Recent deals by Pfizer and AstraZeneca with the U.S. government to lower drug prices and avoid tariffs signal potential regulatory relief for the pharmaceutical industry [8][9] - These agreements come amid concerns over potential tariffs as high as 250% on pharmaceutical imports [7] FDA Approvals - In 2025, the FDA has approved several biotechnology drugs, with 33 approvals so far, following 50 in 2024 and about 55 in 2023 [10] Biotech Deal Activities - Biopharma venture investment reached $5.8 billion across 86 rounds in Q3 2025, totaling $17.1 billion year-to-date [12] - Biopharma completed 35 M&A transactions totaling $30.8 billion, along with seven IPOs raising $1.1 billion year-to-date [12] - Licensing in biopharma reached $63.7 billion in quarterly announced value and $183.7 billion year-to-date [13] ETF Performance - Top-performing biotech ETFs in 2025 include ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (up 29.6%), ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (up 24.4%), and others [14]