IMF世界经济研究处处长：全球加速适应新贸易格局，警惕扩张性财政政策外溢效应

Core Insights - Despite escalating trade protectionism, the global economy is expected to show resilience in 2025, supported by factors such as preemptive consumer spending and investment, as well as a weaker dollar [1][7][9] - The IMF warns that while expansionary fiscal policies in major developed economies may boost short-term growth, high debt levels and rising financing costs pose medium to long-term risks [1][10][11] Trade Tensions and Global Adaptation - The IMF emphasizes the need for constructive solutions to trade disputes, advocating for an open and fair competitive environment [3] - Since the onset of the trade war, global businesses and investors have been adapting to ongoing trade policy uncertainties, with trade flows shifting towards third countries [4][5] - Current high tariffs are nearly universal, complicating corporate decision-making beyond just tariffs [5][6] Transmission of Tariff Effects - The IMF notes that the impact of trade protectionism on economic activity and prices has been limited so far, with effective tariff rates around 18%, lower than previously estimated [7][8] - A weaker dollar has helped mitigate the impact of tariffs, supporting global trade flows and easing inflationary pressures in emerging markets [7][8] - As the initial effects of preemptive consumer behavior fade, cost pressures may eventually be passed on to consumers, leading to persistent inflation rather than a one-time shock [8] Spillover Effects of Expansionary Fiscal Policies - Expansionary fiscal policies in major economies are observed to boost economic activity in the short term, partially offsetting the negative impacts of tariffs [9][10] - High levels of sovereign debt and rising borrowing costs are eroding policy space and could lead to cross-border spillover effects [10][11] - Changes in financial markets, including the rise of stablecoins, may introduce new systemic risks and cross-border implications [11] Impact of Government Shutdown on Monetary Policy - The IMF is closely monitoring the economic impact of the recent U.S. government shutdown, which may have short-term negative effects but typically gets compensated later [12][13]