硅谷这个新风口，顶级VC追着投！

Core Insights - Prediction markets are gaining significant attention from Silicon Valley investment firms, with major funding rounds and the involvement of established exchanges indicating a move towards mainstream acceptance [1][6]. Funding and Valuation - Kalshi, a prediction market platform, raised over $300 million in its Series D funding round on October 10, achieving a valuation of $5 billion, up from $2 billion just four months prior [2][3]. - The funding round was led by prominent firms such as Sequoia Capital and a16z, with participation from other notable investors [2]. Company Background and Development - Kalshi was founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, both of whom have backgrounds in major financial institutions [3][4]. - The platform aims to simplify trading on event outcomes, addressing a gap in the market where investors lacked direct methods to trade on specific events [4]. Regulatory Milestones - Kalshi became the first fully regulated platform in the U.S. to offer legal election trading, overcoming initial regulatory hurdles with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [4][5]. Market Potential and Growth - Kalshi has seen a 200-fold increase in trading volume over the past year, reaching $50 billion, and has captured over 60% of global prediction market activity [6][7]. - The prediction market is viewed as a potential major asset class, with the ability to directly trade based on real-world events [6][8]. Competitive Landscape - Kalshi's main competitor, Polymarket, recently raised $2 billion, achieving a post-money valuation of $9 billion, and has gained traction during the 2024 U.S. presidential election [6][7]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is also entering the prediction market space, planning to launch financial contracts linked to sports events and economic indicators [7][8]. Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The simplicity and intuitiveness of prediction markets are seen as key factors for their potential widespread adoption, contrasting with the complexity of traditional financial products [8]. - The growth potential of prediction markets is viewed as limitless, with the possibility of them becoming as large as the biggest financial markets [8].