Annaly to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 22, with anticipated year-over-year increases in earnings and net interest income (NII) [1] Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, NLY's earnings available for distribution per share exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, supported by improved average yield on interest-earning assets, although there was a year-over-year decline in book value per share (BVPS) [2] - NLY has a history of earnings surprises, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.19% [3][4] Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for third-quarter NII is $447 million, a significant increase from the year-ago quarter's NII of $13.4 million [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings remains at 72 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year rise of 9.1% [5] Factors Influencing Q3 Performance - Despite Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in mid-September, mortgage rates remained stable, leading to growth in refinancing activities and origination volumes [6] - Tighter mortgage-backed securities (MBS) spreads and slower prepayments are expected to have positively impacted NLY's book value gains [7] - A significant portion of NLY's MBS holdings likely experienced elevated constant prepayment rates, positively affecting net premium amortization and supporting growth in interest income [8] Servicing Income - Slower prepayment speeds are anticipated to have positively impacted NLY's mortgage servicing rights portfolio, increasing servicing fees, with a consensus estimate for net servicing income at $126 million, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 15.6% [9] Earnings Beat Probability - The current model indicates that an earnings beat is unlikely for NLY, as it lacks the necessary combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank higher than 3 [10] Zacks Rank and Price Performance - NLY currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a hold position [11] - In the third quarter of 2025, NLY outperformed the industry and peer Orchid Island Capital (ORC), but underperformed peer Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) [12]