Prediction markets signal government shutdown may last into mid-November

Core Insights - Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket anticipate that the federal government shutdown will last approximately six weeks, with an average expectation of 44 days [1][4] - The trading volume in this market exceeds $12.7 million, indicating significant interest and engagement from traders [4] Group 1: Shutdown Duration Expectations - Traders are pricing in a 44% probability that the shutdown will last until November 15, with about a one-in-three chance it continues past November 20 [4] - The largest share of traders, approximately 44%, expect the shutdown to conclude after November 16, with over $147,000 wagered on that outcome [5][6] Group 2: Historical Context - The federal government shut down at 12:01 a.m. ET on October 7, marking the 20th shutdown since 1976 [8] - The longest government shutdown lasted 34 days, occurring from December 2018 to January 2019, due to a funding dispute over President Trump's border wall [8] Group 3: Legislative Impasse - Senators have failed for the 10th time to resolve the impasse, leaving the government shutdown unresolved [11] - The House has been adjourned since September 19 and is not expected to reconvene until the shutdown ends [11]