WDC Surges 250.9% in 6 Months: Is the Stock a Buy, Hold or Sell Now?

Core Insights - Western Digital Corporation's shares have surged 250.9% in the past six months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computer-Storage Devices industry and the broader market [1][9] - The company's focus on HDDs and the increasing demand driven by AI workloads are key factors contributing to its strong revenue growth [9][22] Company Performance - Western Digital has outperformed competitors like Seagate Technology, Pure Storage, and NetApp, which saw gains of 204.9%, 128.4%, and 45.8% respectively during the same period [2] - The company has a 52-week high of $137.4, raising questions about potential upside versus fundamental expectations [3] Growth Catalysts - The transition to a pure-play HDD company after spinning off its Flash/SSD business has strengthened Western Digital's margins and cash flow [4] - Rising demand for nearline storage, AI-driven data storage needs, and improving HDD average selling prices (ASPs) are expected to drive growth [4][22] - The company's ePMR and UltraSMR technologies enhance reliability and scalability, while next-generation HAMR drives are on track for qualification in 2027 [5] Financial Health - Western Digital has authorized up to $2 billion in share buybacks and initiated a quarterly dividend, reflecting strong cash flow and a healthy balance sheet [6][10] - For fiscal 2026, the company anticipates non-GAAP revenues of $2.7 billion, representing a 22% year-over-year increase, with projected non-GAAP earnings of $1.54 [11] AI and Cloud Demand - The adoption of Agentic AI is driving demand for unstructured data storage, with Western Digital leveraging this trend for product innovation [12] - The company has expanded its System Integration and Test Lab to accelerate customer success and qualification of high-capacity HDDs [13] Competitive Landscape - Western Digital faces competition from Seagate, which is advancing with HAMR technology, and other players like NetApp and Pure Storage [14][15] - Despite competition, the growing data demand presents strong prospects for both Western Digital and its competitors [15] Debt Management - As of June 27, 2025, Western Digital had cash and cash equivalents of $2.1 billion against long-term debt of $4.7 billion, indicating a leveraged balance sheet [16] - The company reduced its debt by $2.6 billion in the June quarter, improving its financial position [17] Valuation Metrics - Western Digital's shares are trading at a price/earnings ratio of 17.86, lower than the industry average of 22.44 but above its historical mean of 12.21 [21] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue delivering higher margins, solid free cash flow, and consistent capital returns, with a strong outlook for fiscal 2026 [22]