Mizuho Cuts Rivian to Underperform, Trims Target to $10 on Softer 2026 Outlook

Core Viewpoint - Mizuho downgraded Rivian Automotive Inc. to Underperform from Neutral, reducing its price target to $10 from $14 due to a weaker sales outlook for 2026 as U.S. IRA credits diminish [1] Group 1: Sales and Delivery Estimates - Mizuho cut its 2026 delivery estimate for Rivian to 60,000 units from 68,000, which is below the consensus estimate of 72,000, indicating approximately 40% year-over-year growth, which is still challenging [2] - The revised delivery estimate is significantly below consensus expectations of around 69,000 units [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Competitor Signals - North American EV light-vehicle production is expected to remain flat year-over-year, with Mizuho highlighting General Motors' $1.6 billion EV impairment in the September quarter as a sign of broader market softness [2] - Rivian's third-quarter 2025 volume of 13,000 units increased by 25% sequentially, but high average selling prices above $70,000 may limit near-term demand ahead of the R2 launch planned for the first half of 2026 [3] Group 3: Demand Challenges - Mizuho lowered its estimates for Rivian to approximately 13% below consensus, indicating that U.S. battery electric vehicle (BEV) demand is facing multiple headwinds [3]