大摩：“金发女孩”环境下宜做空美元

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest research report suggests that investors looking to profit from a "golden girl" environment—where U.S. stocks rise while Treasury losses are controlled—should consider shorting the dollar [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The report analyzes the historical correlation between the dollar, the S&P 500 index, and the daily returns of 10-year Treasury bonds, identifying eight asset performance patterns in the U.S. market [1] - Earlier this year, the relationship between the dollar and other assets became a market focus, as the dollar and stock market experienced a simultaneous decline, deviating from its traditional safe-haven characteristics [1] - The traditional negative correlation between the dollar and the stock market has re-emerged, as evidenced by the S&P 500 reaching record highs while the dollar remained low [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, on trading days when the S&P 500 rises by 1.25 standard deviations or more, if the dollar and 10-year Treasury yields do not decline by more than 1.25 standard deviations within the following six months, shorting the dollar against the pound will be the optimal trading strategy [1]