9月份房价同比降幅继续收窄

Core Insights - The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in residential sales prices across various city tiers, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, suggesting that previous policy effects are beginning to manifest and long-term downward pressure on the market is easing [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - In September, the new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.6% and 1.0% [1] - Year-on-year, first-tier cities' new residential sales prices fell by 0.7%, but the decline was narrower by 0.2 percentage points compared to August, with Shanghai showing a significant increase of 5.6% [2] - Second and third-tier cities also experienced declines in new residential sales prices, with year-on-year decreases of 2.1% and 3.4%, respectively, both showing a narrowing decline of 0.3 percentage points [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, remaining stable compared to August, while second and third-tier cities saw declines of 0.7% and 0.6%, with both experiencing an expanded decline of 0.1 percentage points [1] - The overall performance of the new housing market in September was relatively strong, particularly in Beijing and Shanghai, attributed to supportive policies such as lower mortgage rates and optimized public fund withdrawal regulations [2] - The land market continues to show a trend of reduced transaction volume, but there is an increase in the supply of quality land parcels in hot cities, with expectations of increased market supply in the fourth quarter [2][3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Confidence in the real estate market is expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter, driven by policy benefits and seasonal effects, which will likely boost transaction volumes in core cities [3] - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in peripheral areas of core cities is anticipated to stimulate both demand for first homes and improvement needs, contributing to a stable increase in new home transaction volumes in first-tier cities [3]