Union Pacific to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Insights - Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 23, before market opening [1] - The company's earnings have exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.02% [1] Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 2025 revenues is $6.23 billion, reflecting a 2.34% increase from the previous year [3] - Freight revenues are estimated at $5.86 billion, indicating a 1.7% rise from Q3 2024 [3] - Other revenues are projected at $311.3 million, suggesting a 3.6% decline from the same quarter last year [3] - The earnings estimate for Q3 2025 has been revised upward by 0.34% over the past 60 days to $2.99 per share, which is an 8.73% increase year-over-year [4][5] Cost Management and Shareholder Returns - Cost-cutting measures are expected to support the bottom line, with operating expenses anticipated to decline compared to the previous year [6] - Union Pacific's capital allocation strategy includes a capital plan of $3.4 billion and share repurchases between $4 billion and $4.5 billion, reflecting strong free cash flow and enhancing investor confidence [7] Earnings Prediction Model - The current Earnings ESP for Union Pacific is -0.16%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a neutral outlook for an earnings beat this quarter [8] Recent Performance - In Q2 2025, Union Pacific reported earnings of $3.03 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.91, with a year-over-year improvement of 10.6% attributed to operational efficiency [9] - Operating revenues for Q2 were $6.2 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of $6.1 billion, marking a 2.5% year-over-year increase due to higher volumes and core pricing gains [10]