Market Observation - A-shares have seen a continuous decline in trading volume, dropping below 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive days, indicating a market waiting for a clear signal to break the current deadlock [1][2]. Factors Compressing Trading Space - Analysts suggest that the lack of strong new catalysts is compressing trading space, with the market currently in a "conflicted period" due to high valuations and increased uncertainty [2]. - External disturbances, such as recent fluctuations in international trade, have led to a decline in risk appetite, particularly affecting technology sectors reliant on external demand [2]. - Internal market structure and valuation pressures are evident, with a rapid rotation among sectors and a lack of clear investment themes [2]. Capital Flow Revealing Market Sentiment - Current capital flows indicate a cautious and defensive market sentiment, with funds shifting from high-valuation growth sectors to low-valuation defensive sectors [3]. - Defensive sectors like banking have strengthened, while growth sectors such as power equipment and electronics have seen declines [3]. - Despite some net buying in technology stocks, the overall trend shows a weakening, while low-volatility dividend sectors have maintained slight inflows during market fluctuations [3]. Market Dynamics and Fund Structure - The overall reduction in trading volume does not imply a complete withdrawal of funds; rather, it reflects a differentiated capital structure with passive inflows and active withdrawals [4]. - Stock ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, providing a "supporting" effect for market liquidity, while margin financing balances have decreased due to external uncertainties [4]. - Despite short-term pressures, there is optimism for the medium term, as long-term funds like insurance and pensions are gradually increasing their equity allocations [4]. Signals Awaited for Market Breakthrough - The market is looking for key signals, particularly in terms of policy expectations and performance verification, to break the current volume stagnation [6]. - Internally, clarity on medium to long-term planning and third-quarter performance is crucial, while externally, improvements in global liquidity and international trade relations are key variables affecting market sentiment [6]. - Investors are advised to focus on stable asset allocation, risk diversification, and long-term participation, prioritizing assets with solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations [6].
A股成交连日缩量 市场在等待什么？
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-10-20 18:13