Government Shutdown Bullish? Eddie Ghabour's 2026 Case & Adjusting to Volatility

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to remain in a bullish trend through the first half of 2026, despite potential short-term economic data softness [2][3] Economic Outlook - Volatility has increased, with the VIX rising over 20, but concerns about a recession are deemed unwarranted [3] - The ongoing government shutdown may lead to increased probabilities of the Federal Reserve cutting rates, which could be bullish for the market [5][6] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The expectation is for two more rate cuts this year, which would add liquidity to the market [6][10] - The market may not require immediate interest rate adjustments in early 2026, as long as the Fed maintains a data-dependent narrative [7][11] Market Dynamics - Current liquidity dynamics suggest that fundamentals may not significantly impact market performance [8] - The market is anticipated to experience a "violent move up" in the first half of 2026 due to aggressive rate cuts [10][11] Investment Strategy - Tactical strategies have focused on riskier assets, with a recommendation to stay invested in the market until clear signs of exhaustion appear [12][14] - The focus should be on AI-driven stocks and small caps, which are expected to outperform larger indices [16][18] Cryptocurrency Insights - Bitcoin's correlation with the NASDAQ has decreased, and institutional adoption is increasing, making it a potential leader in a bull market [19][20] - Current levels of cryptocurrency are viewed as a good buying opportunity, with Bitcoin ETFs being introduced into tactical strategies [21]