9月北上杭新房价格上涨 四季度政策继续托底

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed a relative stability, with a narrowing decline in housing prices year-on-year, indicating the gradual impact of previous policies [1][3][5] New Housing Market - In September, new housing prices in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.3%, with Beijing and Shanghai seeing increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively [2][3] - Year-on-year, new housing prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points, with Shanghai increasing by 5.6% [3][4] - The number of cities with rising new housing prices increased from 5 to 8, signaling a stabilization in the market [3] Second-hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market continues to face significant downward pressure, with first-tier cities seeing a month-on-month decline of 1.0% in September [4] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities decreased by 3.2%, a narrowing of 0.3 percentage points [4] - The average listing time for second-hand homes in smaller cities has increased to 99 days, indicating greater difficulty in inventory turnover [4] Market Outlook - Industry experts predict that continued policy easing will support transaction volumes in core cities, while smaller cities may need to adopt price reductions to stimulate sales [5] - The anticipated low base effect from last year's fourth quarter, combined with ongoing policy effects, may lead to further narrowing of year-on-year price declines in the last quarter of the year [5]