“钱紧”信号频发 华尔街笃定美联储本月释放缩表终结信号

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Wall Street analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may announce the end of its years-long balance sheet reduction plan at the upcoming meeting at the end of October [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Shift - The anticipated policy shift is driven by recent market volatility, with several financial institutions unexpectedly utilizing the Fed's standing repo facility, leading to increases in key short-term borrowing rates [2][3] - Analysts believe that terminating the quantitative tightening (QT) policy could help ensure the smooth operation of monetary policy [1][2] - The Fed's core interest rate target, the federal funds rate, has been consistently rising within the 4%-4.25% target range [2] Group 2: Background of QT - The QT plan was initially designed to withdraw liquidity injected during the COVID-19 pandemic, where the Fed purchased large amounts of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to stabilize the economy [3][6] - The Fed's total asset holdings peaked at $9 trillion in the summer of 2022, more than doubling from previous levels, and have since been reduced to $6.6 trillion through a specific scale of bond maturities not being reinvested [3][6] Group 3: Market Conditions and Challenges - The Fed aims to maintain sufficient liquidity in the financial system to effectively manage short-term interest rates and respond to normal market fluctuations [6] - There are challenges in determining how much liquidity removal could lead to uncontrolled market volatility, making it difficult for Wall Street to predict the timing of QT's termination [6] - Current market volatility is driven by multiple factors, including tax payment dates and increased short-term Treasury issuance, with the ongoing QT process being a significant contributor [6]