工业金属供需偏紧，贸易冲突缓和后有望偏强运行

Group 1 - Industrial metals have a high proportion in the non-ferrous sector, categorized into financial and commodity attributes [1] - The financial aspect indicates that prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which are expected to continue [1] - Recent supply changes include a short-term production cut of 470,000 tons of copper from the Grasberg mine due to a landslide, leading to a projected supply-demand gap of 300,000 tons in copper for next year, approximately 1.3% of global supply [1][2] Group 2 - Downstream demand is expected to rise due to significant overseas AI investments, increasing copper demand in data centers and power grids, as well as from the renewable energy sector [2] - Aluminum supply is relatively balanced, with high utilization rates in domestic electrolytic aluminum production, suggesting strong upward price elasticity if demand increases or supply is disrupted [2] - The current valuation of aluminum-related companies in the A-share market is low, with PE ratios around 10-12 times for aluminum and 18 times for copper, indicating potential for upward valuation [3] Group 3 - Overall, the supply-demand situation for industrial metals is tight, particularly with limited future capacity release, and prices are expected to remain strong despite short-term fluctuations due to trade conflicts [3] - The non-ferrous mining sector is likely to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and improving downstream demand [3] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index, focusing on resource companies, with over 50% concentration in industrial metals, gold, and rare earths, aligning with the logic of rising metal prices [3]