Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-10-21 01:44Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing mixed price movements, with 17 products increasing in price, 52 decreasing, and 31 remaining stable during the week of October 13-19. The report highlights the need to focus on quarterly earnings, undervalued industry leaders, and the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries [1][2][3]. Industry Dynamics - During the week of October 13-19, among 100 tracked chemical products, 17 saw price increases, 52 saw decreases, and 31 remained stable. Specifically, 29% of products had a month-on-month average price increase, while 56% experienced a decrease, and 15% remained unchanged [3]. - The products with the highest weekly price increases included sulfur (Zhejiang Juhua 98%), vinyl acetate (East China), propylene oxide (East China), hydrochloric acid (Yangtze River Delta 31%), and pure MDI (East China). Conversely, the largest price decreases were seen in WTI crude oil, acetone (East China), NYMEX natural gas, naphtha (Singapore), and vitamin E [3]. Oil Market Overview - International oil prices fell during the week, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $57.54 per barrel, a weekly decline of 2.31%, and Brent crude oil futures at $61.29 per barrel, also down 2.30%. The report notes geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and India's commitment to halt oil purchases from Russia [4]. - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.636 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.7 thousand barrels from the previous week and up 13.6% year-on-year. However, U.S. oil demand decreased to an average of 19.726 million barrels per day, down 226.4 thousand barrels from the previous week [4]. - EIA forecasts indicate that Brent crude prices may drop from an average of $69 per barrel in 2025 to $52 per barrel in 2026 due to oversupply [4]. Specific Chemical Products - Methionine prices decreased, with an average price of 21.15 yuan/kg on October 17, down 0.94% week-on-week and 2.76% month-on-month. Production remained stable at 14,700 tons, with a utilization rate of 71.46% [6]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices increased, with an average price of 75,000 yuan/ton on October 19, up 7.14% week-on-week and 33.93% month-on-month. Production levels are high, and demand from electrolyte manufacturers is strong [7]. Investment Recommendations - As of October 17, the SW basic chemical sector's P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 24.76, at the 73.39% historical percentile, while the P/B ratio is 2.16, at the 49.29% historical percentile. The SW oil and petrochemical sector's P/E ratio is 11.53, at the 24.01% historical percentile, and the P/B ratio is 1.14, at the 19.57% historical percentile [8]. - Investment focus for October includes quarterly earnings, undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [2][8]. - Long-term investment themes include sustained high oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and the growth potential in new materials [9]. Recommended companies include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and various technology and chemical firms [9][10].