“双碳”五周年的电力担当与未来展望

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese power industry has made significant progress in achieving the "dual carbon" goals over the past five years, with renewable energy surpassing coal power in installed capacity and increasing its share in the energy mix, while facing ongoing challenges and the need for further advancements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Achievements - Renewable energy installed capacity has historically surpassed coal power, with wind and solar power capacity expected to exceed 1.67 billion kilowatts by mid-2025, accounting for approximately 45.8% of total installed capacity [2]. - The carbon intensity of the power sector continues to decline, with a projected 11.6% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2024 compared to 2020, equating to a decrease of 1.1 billion tons of CO2 emissions [2]. - Significant technological innovations have emerged, including smart grids and virtual power plants, enhancing the system's ability to accommodate a high proportion of renewable energy [2]. Group 2: Challenges - There is a structural tension between energy security and the rapid reduction of fossil fuels, as coal power remains a crucial backup source that cannot be fully replaced in the short term [3]. - Issues with renewable energy consumption and system adjustment capabilities persist, with some regions experiencing a rebound in renewable energy curtailment and low consumption rates [3]. - The industry faces bottlenecks in high-end materials and key components for solar and wind energy, as well as concerns over low-level redundant construction and overcapacity in certain areas [3]. Group 3: Future Pathways - The power industry must integrate safety and low-carbon goals, balancing the role of coal power during the transition period while promoting its transformation into a more flexible and supportive energy source [4]. - There is a need to accelerate the construction of a new power system dominated by renewable energy, enhancing the integration of various energy sources and improving cross-regional adjustment capabilities [4]. - The development of new energy storage technologies and the establishment of a multi-level adjustment system are essential for increasing system flexibility [5]. - Digitalization and smart technologies should be leveraged to enhance operational efficiency and renewable energy consumption capabilities [5]. - The market and policy mechanisms require improvement, including expanding the national carbon market and refining the electricity pricing mechanism to reflect green value [5]. - Strengthening international cooperation and setting standards will enhance China's influence in the global clean energy supply chain [5].