AI驱动需求增长,看好本轮存储周期持续性 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-10-21 02:23

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing a price increase driven by strong demand from AI applications, while major manufacturers are adjusting production capacity due to weak NAND Flash demand and price pressures [2][3][4]. Pricing - A new round of price increases for storage products has begun since September, with SanDisk raising NAND product prices by over 10% and Western Digital notifying customers of gradual price hikes for all HDD products [2] - Samsung plans to increase DRAM prices by 15% to 30% and NAND Flash prices by 5% to 10% in Q4 2025 [2] - Overall, conventional DRAM prices are expected to rise by 8-13% in Q4 2025, with HBM included, the increase could reach 13-18% [2]. Supply - Major manufacturers like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are implementing production cuts due to weak NAND Flash demand and price pressures, primarily by reducing utilization rates and delaying process upgrades [3] - Since Q3 2024, manufacturers have shifted some low-margin DRAM capacity to higher-margin products like DDR5 and HBM, leading to potential supply shortages [3]. Demand - The demand for SSDs is increasing due to HDD shortages, driven by AI applications that require high-speed processing of large data volumes [4] - The lead time for NL HDDs has extended from weeks to over 52 weeks, creating a significant storage gap [4]. - Server DRAM demand is expected to grow rapidly, particularly for DDR5 products, with CSPs anticipated to significantly increase their DRAM procurement by 2026 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The strong demand from AI is expected to continue driving storage growth, and due to production limitations from major manufacturers, the price increase trend is likely to persist into Q4 2025 [6] - Companies to watch include Zhaoyi Innovation, Demingli, Baiwei Storage, and Purun Co., Ltd. [6].