智通财经网·2025-10-21 02:41Core Viewpoint - The current adjustment in the liquor industry is nearing its end, with household banquet scenarios expected to recover faster than business demand, and leading companies continuing to enhance management efficiency to increase market share [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Adjustment Analysis - The liquor industry has experienced two rounds of adjustments, with the first from 2013 to 2016 driven by declining profits in industrial enterprises and reduced real estate investment, impacting business consumption scenarios [1]. - The second round, starting in 2022, has seen a continuous contraction in business demand, influenced by government policies promoting frugality, but the impact on liquor demand is less severe compared to the previous round [2]. - The current adjustment has lasted five quarters, with expectations for recovery by the second quarter of 2026, based on historical patterns [2]. Group 2: Market Changes and Investment Implications - The top six liquor companies account for 48.1% of total sales, indicating enhanced industry self-regulation and a more moderate adjustment process due to government guidance [3]. - The expansion of sauce liquor production capacity has not yet translated into revenue share, but it is expected to gain traction in the competitive landscape [3]. - Companies are improving their market value management strategies, increasing dividend payouts, and utilizing flexible buyback methods, which will enhance investor returns [3].