机构看金市：10月21日

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached new highs, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing safe-haven demand, with significant attention on the progress of US-China trade negotiations [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures indicates that strong market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and persistent safe-haven demand have propelled gold prices to new highs. The government shutdown in the US has delayed key economic data releases, creating a "data vacuum" for investors and policymakers ahead of the Fed's upcoming policy meeting [1]. - UBS Global Wealth Management suggests that increasing political and trade-related uncertainties are driving recent momentum in gold prices, with potential for gold to reach $4,700 per ounce due to declining real interest rates, a weak dollar, rising government debt, and geopolitical turmoil [4]. - CIBC analysts predict that economic uncertainties will lead to a parabolic trend in gold and silver prices, with gold expected to benefit from a favorable macroeconomic environment [4][5]. Group 2: Price Predictions and Trends - Guangfa Futures notes that the annual increase in London spot gold prices has reached 66%, which is historically rare, suggesting a high probability of a pullback in the fourth quarter as the market adjusts to geopolitical developments and profit-taking [2]. - CIBC has adjusted its average gold price forecasts for next year and 2027 to approximately $4,500 per ounce, reflecting increases of 25% and 36% respectively, while indicating that $3,300 per ounce may become the new normal for gold prices in the long term [5]. - The global demand for gold is expected to reach around 4,850 tons this year, the highest level since 2011, driven by increased investment demand and central bank purchases [4].