畜牧ETF(159867)连续5日净申购，“猪价+疫情+调控”三重因素加速生猪产能去化

Core Viewpoint - The livestock sector is experiencing a surge due to three main factors: low pig prices, African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks, and regulatory policies aimed at capacity reduction. Group 1: Low Pig Prices - The core pressure for capacity reduction is the low pig prices, with the average cost of production around 13 yuan/kg, leading to losses of approximately 250–300 yuan per fattening pig since September 15 [1] - As of late October, the national average pig price is about 11 yuan/kg, marking the lowest point in six years for the same period [1] - The collapse of the piglet market is evident, with prices for 6–7 kg piglets plummeting from 450–500 yuan/head in the first half of the year to 150 yuan/head, resulting in a situation of "having a price but no market" [1] - High asset-liability ratios among listed pig companies could accelerate capacity reduction if low prices persist for 3–4 months, potentially leading to continuous losses [1] Group 2: African Swine Fever (ASF) Outbreaks - The winter season (October to January) poses significant challenges for ASF control, as the virus thrives in colder conditions [2] - Current risks include unusually high antibody positivity rates, worsening weather conditions that facilitate virus spread, and lax biosecurity measures by farmers due to low pig prices [2] Group 3: Regulatory Policies - A series of policies have been introduced to actively regulate production capacity, including a directive for the top 25 enterprises to reduce breeding sows by 1 million by January 2026 [3] - Additional measures include controlling the weight of pigs at around 120 kg to combat secondary fattening and a projected 10% reduction in output for major companies by 2026, which is expected to decrease national output by 5% [3] - Supporting measures involve strict environmental controls, tightening of credit, and reduction of subsidies [4] - The policy goal is to accelerate capacity reduction through administrative means to stabilize the positive impact of pork prices on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [5] Group 4: Market Performance - As of October 21, 2025, the CSI Livestock Breeding Index (930707) rose by 0.55%, with notable increases in stocks such as Haida Group (1.81%) and Luoniushan (1.63%) [5] - The Livestock ETF (159867) increased by 0.46%, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies involved in livestock breeding, feed, and pharmaceuticals [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Livestock Breeding Index account for 66.06% of the index, indicating a concentrated market [5]