后两个月标肥价差进一步扩大空间受限

Core Viewpoint - The price gap between fat and standard pigs in China has been widening post-National Day holiday due to a decrease in the proportion of large pigs and a shift in demand, although supply may exceed expectations in the coming months, limiting further expansion of the price gap [1][3]. Group 1: Price Gap Dynamics - After the National Day holiday, the national price gap between fat and standard pigs has shown a gradual widening trend, with the price gap reaching 0.65 yuan/kg as of October 20, an increase of 0.27 yuan/kg from September 30, representing a 41.54% month-on-month increase [1]. - The fundamental reason for the widening price gap is the differentiation in the weight structure of pigs, with the proportion of large pigs (over 140 kg) at a five-year low of 1.04%, while the proportion of standard pigs (90-140 kg) has increased to 37.34% [5]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand side is experiencing structural adjustments due to changes in climate and consumer behavior, with a decrease in temperatures leading to a rebound in restaurant consumption and an increase in large pig purchases, which supports the price of fat pigs [3]. - Seasonal factors are contributing to increased demand for large pigs, creating a significant price advantage ahead of the consumption peak, with farmers holding back on sales, further supporting large pig prices [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to November and December, the demand for large pigs is expected to be bolstered by decreasing temperatures and the onset of household curing activities, which will further support large pig prices [3]. - However, the supply of large pigs may exceed market expectations due to the concentration of piglets being marketed in this period, which could limit the expansion of the price gap [3].